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The BWF-CERTIFIRE
Fire Door & Doorset Scheme Quarterly Trends Report
Strong sales forecast for Timber Fire Doors
Overview
“The economy grew twice as fast in the first six months of the year than previously thought according to statistics” says Mike Rigby whose company produced this report. “The 'slowdown' which contributed to the Bank of England's cut in interest rates in July may not have happened. But rates went back up to 3.75% in November. More rises are expected.“The construction sector has been boosted by government spending on hospitals, prisons, roads and rail. The spending spree has come as a relief to the industry. Homeowners too are still spending freely, funding home improvements with record levels of mortgage borrowing.”
“Activity in the housing market appears to be recovering from the sharp slowdown in the first half of the year and house price growth remains strong. House prices rose 2% in October putting prices 16.1% higher than last year according to the Nationwide. But the massive rise in the last two years has led economists to predict a sharp slowdown over the next year or so. Overall Britain's economy is still a star amongst European states. Its prospects look brighter too.”
Sales, quarter-on-quarter
In the three months July-September forty percent of timber fire door manufacturers reported increased sales of timber fire doors compared with the previous three months. Thirteen percent decreased and forty seven percent stayed the same.The difference between the number of companies reporting an increase over those reporting a decrease is the net balance, expressed as a percentage. A positive net balance indicates growth, a net balance of zero implies little has changed.
On this basis, a net 27% of manufacturers increased sales of timber fire doors in the last three months compared with the previous three. More medium and large manufacturers (33%) grew sales compared with small (20%). See chart 1.
A net 67% of manufacturers who sold more than an average monthly of 500 fire doors over the last three months improved sales. More than eight in ten manufacturers reported increases of more than 10% quarter on quarter.
Timber fire door merchants also did well with a net 37% selling more fire doors than the previous three months.
Sales, year-on-year
Manufacturers saw no overall change in sales of timber fire doors compared with the same period last year. Only large manufacturers and companies in the North reported net increases. A net 33% of manufacturers who sold between 500-1000 fire doors in the last three months reported increases. All manufacturers who reported growth reported increases of more than 10% on the year before. (Chart 1)Seventy-three percent of timber fire doors sold by manufacturers in the last 12 months had a 30 minute fire resistance rating. Twenty-three percent had a 60 minute rating, three percent a FD90 rating and one percent a rating of FD120.
Over the last 12 months a net 47% of manufacturers increased sales of timber fire doors with a FD30 rating. A net 40% recorded increases of FD60 ratings. Sales slipped for fire doors with a 90 and 120 minute rating.
However, 42% of merchants increased sales of timber fire doors compared with the same period last year. Ninety percent of all timber fire doors sold by merchants had a 30 minute rating and the remaining 10% had a 60 minute rating.
Sales forecasts
A net 33% of manufacturers expect to increase sales in the next three months compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the same period last year a net 60% of manufacturers expect stronger sales. Significantly, none of the people we spoke to expect timber fire door sales to fall back.
Merchants' expectations on the other hand are modest with a net 4% expecting higher sales in the next three months compared with the previous quarter.
“We supply the new build housing sector and currently work at capacity. Over the last three months we have sold approximately 750 fire doors to contractors building residential flats.Mr Darren Whiting, Branch Manager“As the risk of fire is much higher with more people living within the same building, regulations demand that both 30 and 60 minute fire resistant doors are fitted to entrance and bedroom doorways of each flat in order to provide a safer environment”.
Woodline Building Products Ltd, Kent
Volume
Manufacturers' order volumes of timber fire doors in July-September were broadly unchanged compared with the previous three months (chart 3).
Prices
Manufacturers reported higher purchase costs in the last three months compared with the previous three (chart 4). Selling prices of timber fire doors remained broadly steady with 57% seeing no change.
“As a fire door manufacturer we comply with the new standards of building regulations. When fire doors leave our factory they are built to specification. But by the time they get to the end user they may have been handled by up to three others in the supply chain. It is compulsory that the doors are still within the right specification when fitted, and we supply detailed instruction for any alteration that might be needed.Mr Derrick Bartlett, Partner“We have seen an increase in sales of both 30 and 60 minute fire resistant doors since the regulations have been in place, and look forward to a further increase of up to 10% next year”.
Caledonian Plywood Company, Glasgow
Capacity
Forty-seven percent of timber manufacturers are working at capacity. But looking specifically at timber fire doors, 27% are working at capacity (chart 5).
Prospects
The overall prospects for the timber fire door market look healthy with a net 47% of manufacturers more confident in their outlook than three months ago (chart 6).
“I estimate a 25% increase in fire door sales over the next year. Many of Gloucester's large existing three storey town houses, too big and expensive for ordinary families, are being converted into 1 and 2 bedroom flats for rent and sale. In addition we're seeing lots of activity in the new construction of three storey buildings in blocks of 3 or 4 with 2 and 3 bedrooms. With the new building regulations stipulating that fire doors must be used in all cases except for bathroom and toilet areas this activity will contribute to growth in the market.”Mr Gordon Clark, Door Manager
Gloucester Timber, Gloucester
Problems
Lack of skilled staff, cash flow and changes in legislation were problems in the last three months (chart 7). Cash flow and changes in legislation were both highlighted as the single biggest problem and was mentioned by 20% of those we spoke to.
Internal/External fire doors
Ninety-two percent of all timber fire doors sold are internal fire doors and 8% are external fire doors according to manufacturers interviewed.
| Timber fire doors sold in last 12 months | Manufacturers' % of fire doors | Merchants' % of fire doors | ||
| Internal | External | Internal | External | |
| Flush doors | 70% | 65% | 73% | 92% |
| Panel doors | 4% | 3% | 18% | 4% |
| Die formed doors | 1% | - | 3% | - |
| Laminated timber cored flush doors | 25% | 32% | 4% | 3% |
| Other | - | - | 2% | 1% |
“We have seen a 10% increase at least, in sales of FD30 fire doors over the last year, This is because of two flat conversions we have supplied fire doors to. New amendments to building regulations stipulate that all door ways in rented properties must now have at least a 30 minute fire check door fitted.Mr Mark Carson, Director“We expect to see further increases in sales of fire doors over the next 12 months. This is due to public awareness and demand in wanting a more secure home. We now offer a large readily available range of standard size decorative fire doors in a choice of patterns and veneers”.
Carson Fletcher Timber Ltd, Leicestershire
Comment
“Following the changes to building regulations in 2000, the Fire Doors market has become increasingly important. A growing market thrives on information, so the time is right to launch the Timber Fire doors Quarterly Trends Survey,” says Richard Lambert, Director of the British Woodworking Federation. The BWF-CERTIFIRE Fire Door & Doorset Scheme has established the importance of using certificated fire doors. Sponsoring the survey reflects its continuing commitment to growing this market. The strength of the construction sector at the moment means that the outlook is good.“This quarterly trend survey is the first and only survey to provide manufacturers, builders and timber merchants with a regular, credible source of information. In the course of these surveys, we'll be tracking trends by speaking to manufacturers and merchants of all sizes across the country. The results of this first survey are a snapshot of reported sales, forecasts and prices. As further surveys are completed the latest information will be added to charts and tables building up a clear picture of trends as they emerge and the report builds momentum.”
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The Timber Fire Doors Survey, a quarterly trends report, is produced by Michael Rigby Associates, and sponsored by The BWF-CERTIFIRE Fire Door & Doorset Scheme and featured in TTJ. The aim is to keep a finger on the timber fire door market pulse, and to view manufacturers' and merchants' expectations of market movements. Michael Rigby Associates specialises in fact based marketing in home improvements, DIY and building materials markets. The survey covers a representative sample of timber fire door manufacturers as well as 100 timber and builders merchants. Telephone interviews took place between the 6 and 14 October 2003 across a balanced spread of size of firm and geographical area. Numbers employed was used as an indication of company size. The categories are small (1-24 employees), medium 25-49 and large (over 50 employees). © Copyright BWF and Michael Rigby Associates 2003 |
