The BWF CERTIFIRE Fire Door & Doorset Scheme Quarterly Trends Report

Manufacturers Forecast Strong Sales

Fire door manufacturers reported increased sales of timber fire doors in October-December 2004 compared with the previous three months. Thirty-seven per cent of manufacturers improved sales, 26% decreased and 37% stayed the same.

The difference between the number of companies reporting an increase over those reporting a decrease is the net balance, expressed as a percentage. A positive net balance indicates growth, a net balance of zero implies little has changed.

On this basis, a net 11% of manufacturers reported higher sales in October to December 2004 compared with the previous three months (chart 1). Of these, 86% recorded growth of 10% or more. Growth was more widespread among medium-sized companies (38%). Large manufacturers reported little change and small firms' sales fell back (-33%). Manufacturers in the North (40%) and South (20%) increased. But those in the Midlands (-33%) recorded a fall.

Sales, year-on-year

A net 21% of manufacturers reported higher sales in the last three months compared with the same time last year (chart 1). Eighty per cent recorded an increase of 10% or more.

Medium-sized companies (50%) did better than large manufacturers (25%). In contrast, small firms reported a drop (-67%). Growth was widespread among manufacturers in the South (50%) and the North (20%) but sales fell in the Midlands (-33%).

Eighty per cent of manufacturers' timber fire door sales were sold with a FD30 rating, seventeen percent had a FD60 rating and three percent were sold with a FD90 and FD120 rating (chart 2).

Forecasts

A net 37% of manufacturers forecast growth in the next three months compared with the previous quarter (chart 3). Few expect a drop.

Year-on-year expectations are also strong with a net 74% of manufacturers anticipating better sales in the coming quarter compared with the same period last year. Sales expectations are robust across all regions and sizes of firms.

Orders

A net 21% of manufacturers increased order volumes from October to December 2004 compared with the previous three months (chart 4).

Prices

Just under two in five manufacturers raised their selling prices during the three months October to December compared with the previous quarter. However just under seven in ten companies reported an increase in the cost of materials over the period (chart 5).

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“We manufacture approximately 1650 timber fire doors per month and are currently working at capacity. We will be investing and expanding the company over the next two years and expect a sales increase of 10% year on year.

“Government legislation from within the industry is responsible for growth in the timber fire doors market. Building controls and fire officers demand credible fire door manufacturers who comply with regulations and are armed with all necessary standards. They will be the force behind the growth in this market and reputable companies like ours will prosper.”

Mr Brian Warren, Technical Sales Manager
Enfield Speciality Doors, Enfield

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Prospects

A net 47% of manufacturers are more confident now about the overall prospects for the timber fire door market than three months ago (chart 6). Significantly, as in last quarter's survey, none of the manufacturers interviewed were downbeat about prospects.

Problems

Slow payments and bad debts (56%) and price cutting in the market (44%) were among the top two problems mentioned by manufacturers this quarter. However, low sales volume, margin squeeze, supplier price rises and lack of skilled staff all came in at third position (39%).

Low sales volume and price cutting in the market are identified as the two single biggest problems affecting 22% of manufacturers in the last three months (chart 7).

Internal & External fire doors

Ninety-one percent of timber fire doors sold in the last 12 months were internal, and 9% were external doors.

Timber fire doors sold in last 12 months	Merchants' % of fire doors sales		Manufacturers' % of fire doors sales
	Internal	External	Internal	External
By type of Fire Door:
Flush doors	67%	82%	81%	88%
Panel doors	22%	9%	2%	12%
Die formed doors	5%	0%	5%	0%
Laminated timber cored flush doors	5%	4%	7%	0%
Other	1%	5%	5%	0%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%
All Timber Fire Doors	76%	24%	91%	9%

Fire Doorsets

Thirty-eight per cent of timber fire doors sold in the last 12 months were sold as fire door sets.

Merchants' sales

A net 4% of merchants increased sales of timber fire doors in the last quarter compared with the previous three months. Year-on-year sales are stronger with a net 44% of merchants selling more timber fire doors in the last three months compared with the same time last year.

Ninety-one per cent of all fire doors sold by merchants in the last 12 months had a 30 minute fire door resistance rating. A net 31% of merchants saw sales of FD30 fire doors go up over this period.

A net 40% of merchants expect to sell more timber fire doors in the next quarter compared with the previous three months.

Eighty-three per cent of merchants interviewed recommend compatible components every time a fire door leaf is sold. However, 17% of merchants do not recommend anything. Interestingly only 32% of merchants say they have had relevant training on compatibility of components but most feel confident they are able to give correct advice.

Comment

“This report underlines the strength and confidence in the timber fire doors market at the moment,” says Richard Lambert, Director of the British Woodworking Federation. “The factors driving the growth in the market, such as planning policies promoting development of blocks of flats and townhouses, and substantial housing refurbishment, particularly in the social housing sector, are unlikely to disappear. Indeed, if the early signs of a revival in commercial office construction come to fruition, we could see a further boost.

“But we mustn't allow good sales figures to distract us from the need to continue to improve the quality of the doors on the market. The BWF has worked hard to establish the importance of using independently certificated fire doors in the minds of specifiers, contractors and regulators. We've also pressed home the message that a fire door is only as reliable as the components used to install it. The responses in the most recent surveys show that there is an increased awareness of the importance of compatibility of components.

“This awareness is sure to have influenced the proportion of fire doors sold as complete doorsets. At the beginning of 2004, the survey found 27% of fire doors sold as doorsets. We saw a step change in the latter part of the year, with the proportion jumping to 38%. Doorsets are a better product for the client and give greater value to the manufacturer, so I expect this trend to continue.

“Selling prices are likely to creep up in the face of increased timber prices, fuel costs and liability premiums. However, actual and expected price rises haven't affected sales forecasts. Although the doors market remains intensely competitive, there is an optimistic mood going into 2005.”

The Timber Fire Doors Survey, a quarterly trends report, is produced by Michael Rigby Associates, and sponsored by the BWF-CERTIFIRE Fire Door and Doorset Scheme in conjunction with Timber Trades Journal. The aim is to keep a finger on the timber fire doors' market pulse, and to view merchants' and manufacturers' expectations of market movements. Michael Rigby Associates specialises in fact based marketing in home improvements, DIY and building materials markets. The survey covers a representative sample of 100 timber and builders' merchants as well as manufacturers. Telephone interviews took place between the 10th - 24th January 2005 across a balanced spread of size of firm and geographical area. For survey details or a free copy of the full report call Lucia Di Stazio on 01453 521621 or visit www.521621.com. © Copyright BWF and Michael Rigby Associates 2005